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For the first time, a causal link has be...

    For the first time, a causal link has been established between climate(气候) change and the timing of a natural event-the appearance of the common brown butterfly.

Although there have been strong connections between global warming and changes in the timing of events such as animal migration and flowering, it has been hard to show a cause-and-effect link. This is what Michael Kearney and Natalie Briscoe of the University of Melbourne, Australia, have now done.

The researchers compared temperature changes in Melbourne-where the butterfly is common-with recorded observations of the first brown butterfly to be seen in the spring since the 1940s.With each of the past ten years, the butterflies appeared 1.6 days earlier and Melbourne heated by 0.14℃. Overall, the butterfly now appears on average 10.4 days before it did in the 1940s.

The pair are confident in the relationship for two reasons. First, they placed eggs of the butterfly, in special boxes where temperature could be controlled and found that each larval stage had a different response to warmer-than-normal conditions. The egg, which is laid in late summer, and the first larval stage do well at high temperatures, says Kearney. The second to the fifth stages occur in winter and can't survive high temperatures. The knock- on effect is that the larval pupates earlier and the butterfly appears sooner. Second, they made a mathematical model combining these physiological effects of temperature on development with climate data. The model precisely matched the observed changes in butterfly emergence date.

The researchers used several climate models to find out what is likely to have caused the rise in Melbourne's temperature, and ruled out the possibility that natural weather events could account for the warming.

1.What is the relationship between the rise in temperature and the butterfly appearance?

A.They are linked in a difficult way.

B.They are related in a cause-and-effect way.

C.They have a direct relationship with each other.

D.They have no connection with each other.

2.Why were the researchers confident about their finding?

A.They had used the most advanced equipment in the world.

B.Their finding got support from the textbooks.

C.The results of their study is based on expert judgement.

D.Their experiment proved their previous guessing.

3.What does the underlined part "The knock-on effect" in paragraph 4 mean?

A.The effect caused by the thing that happened before.

B.The effect of things that happened at the same time.

C.The effect of one thing causing the other long after.

D.The effect of one thing causing the other quickly.

4.What can be inferred from the text?

A.The exact reason for Melbourne's temperature rise is very clear.

B.Climate models cannot exactly show climate change in history.

C.The timing of the butterfly appearance will be earlier with increased warming.

D.The rise in temperature decides the possibility of natural weather events.

 

1.B 2.D 3.A 4.C 【解析】 本文是一篇说明文。主要介绍了随着气候的改变,动物的习性也会有所改变。蝴蝶出现得比以往早,就是因为气候变暖。 1. 细节理解题。根据第一段For the first time, a causal link has been established between climate(气候) change and the timing of a natural event-the appearance of the common brown butterfly.可知这是第一次在气候变化和自然事件——普通棕蝶的出现——发生的时间之间建立了因果关系。由此可知,温度的上升和蝴蝶的出现有因果关系。故选B。 2. 细节理解题。根据第三段中With each of the past ten years, the butterflies appeared 1.6 days earlier and Melbourne heated by 0.14℃. Overall, the butterfly now appears on average 10.4 days before it did in the 1940s.(在过去的十年里,蝴蝶的出现时间每年提前1.6天,墨尔本气温也升高了0.14℃。总的来说,现在的蝴蝶平均出现时间比20世纪40年代早了10.4天)以及第四段内容The pair are confident in the relationship for two reasons. First, they placed eggs of the butterfly, in special boxes where temperature could be controlled and found that each larval stage had a different response to warmer-than-normal conditions. The egg, which is laid in late summer, and the first larval stage do well at high temperatures, says Kearney. The second to the fifth stages occur in winter and can't survive high temperatures. The knock- on effect is that the larval pupates earlier and the butterfly appears sooner. Second, they made a mathematical model combining these physiological effects of temperature on development with climate data. The model precisely matched the observed changes in butterfly emergence date.可知他们之所以对自己的恋情充满信心,有两个原因。首先,他们把蝴蝶卵放在可以控制温度的特殊盒子里,发现每个幼虫阶段对温度比正常情况有不同的反应。科尔尼说,在夏末产下的卵和第一个幼虫阶段在高温下发育良好。第二到第五阶段发生在冬天,不能在高温下生存。撞击效应是幼虫蛹化得早,蝴蝶出现得早。其次,他们制作了一个数学模型,将温度对发育的这些生理影响与气候数据结合起来。这个模型与观察到的蝴蝶出现日期的变化非常吻合。 由此可知,研究人员对他们的发现充满信心,是因为他们的实验证实了他们先前的猜测。故选D。 3. 词义猜测题。根据画线部分下文the larval pupates earlier and the butterfly appears sooner.可知蚕化蛹比以往早,变成蝴蝶也比以前快,说明是指以前发生的事情所造成的影响。故划线部分意思是“以前发生的事情造成的影响”。故选A。 4. 推理判断题。根据第三段With each of the past ten years, the butterflies appeared 1.6 days earlier and Melbourne heated by 0.14℃. Overall, the butterfly now appears on average 10.4 days before it did in the 1940s.在过去的十年里,蝴蝶每年都会提前1.6天出现,墨尔本的温度上升了0.14摄氏度。 总的来说,现在蝴蝶出现的平均时间比20世纪40年代提前了10.4天。由此判断出,蝴蝶出现的时间会随着气候变暖而提前。故选C。
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