Question

German study suggests that people who were too optimistic about their future actually faced greater risk of disability or death within 10 years than those pessimists who expected their future to be worse.

The paper，published this March in Psychology and Aging，examined health and welfare surveys from roughly 40,000 Germans between ages 18 and 96.The surveys were conducted every year from 1993 to 2003.

Survey respondents (受访者) were asked to estimate their present and future life satisfaction on a scale of 0 to 10，among other questions.

The researchers found that young adults (age 18 to 39) routinely overestimated their future life satisfaction，while middle­aged adults (age 40 to 64) more accurately predicted how they would feel in the future.Adults of 65 and older，however，were far more likely to underestimate their future life satisfaction.Not only did they feel more satisfied than they thought they would，the older pessimists seemed to suffer a lower ratio (比率) of disability and death for the study period.

“We observed that being too optimistic in predicting a better future than actually observed was associated with a greater risk of disability and a greater risk of death within the following decade，”wrote Frieder R．Lang，a professor at the University of Erlangen­Nuremberg.

Lang and his colleagues believed that people who were pessimistic about their future may be more careful about their actions than people who expected a rosy future.

“Seeing a dark future may encourage positive evaluations of the actual self and may contribute to taking improved precautions (预防措施)，”the authors wrote.

Surprisingly，compared with those in poor health or who had low incomes，respondents who enjoyed good health or income were associated with expecting a greater decline.Also，the researchers said that higher income was related to a greater risk of disability.

The authors of the study noted that there were limitations to their conclusions.Illness，medical treatment and personal loss could also have driven health outcomes.

However，the researchers said a pattern was clear.“We found that from early to late adulthood，individuals adapt their expectations of future life satisfaction from optimistic，to accurate，to pessimistic，”the authors concluded.

1.According to the study，who made the most accurate prediction of their future life satisfaction?

A．Optimistic adults.

B．Middle­aged adults.

C．Adults in poor health.

D．Adults of lower income.

2.Pessimism may be positive in some way because it causes people________.

A．to fully enjoy their present life

B．to estimate their contribution accurately

C．to take measures against potential risks

D．to value health more highly than wealth

3.How do people of higher income see their future?

A．They will earn less money.

B．They will become pessimistic.

C．They will suffer mental illness.

D．They will have less time to enjoy life.

4.What is the clear conclusion of the study?

A．Pessimism guarantees chances of survival.

B．Good financial condition leads to good health.

C．Medical treatment determines health outcomes.

D．Expectations of future life satisfaction decline with age.

Answer

1.B

2.C

3.A

4.D

【解析】德国的一项研究表明，与悲观者相比，对自己的未来过于乐观的人在未来10年更容易出现残疾或死亡。该研究还发现，年轻人组对自己未来生活的满意度的期望过高，中年人预测相对准确，而老年人往往低估自己未来生活的满意度。

1.

2.2】解析：选C。推理判断题。第六段说，Lang和他的同事认为，对自己未来悲观的人比乐天派对自己的日常行为更小心，第七段说，这样的人可能会采取预防措施(应对潜在的危险)，因此选C项。

3.3】解析：选A。推理判断题。第八段说，与身体不好、收入不高的人相比，身体好或者收入高的受访者往往预料自己这两方面(好身体或高收入)将来会下降得更厉害，研究者说高收入往往与身体出现残疾的风险相联系，因此选A项。B项说他们将来会很悲观，而文章讲的是他们现在对将来的估计；C项说他们将来会出现精神疾病，而本段说的是这样的人群对将来的预计，觉得自己将来的身体和收入状况都会下降，因此B、C不对。

4.4】解析：选D。推理判断题。文章前几段提到不同年龄组对自己未来生活满意度的估计。从叙述看，年轻人太乐观，中年人较实际，老年人更悲观，看来对未来生活满意度的期望是随着年龄而递减的，最后一段也有明确的提示，因此选D项。